Research
The United States mines more copper than it refines.
Ten years of government data on refinery output, import reliance and where the world's refining capacity actually sits.
Key findings
0101
In 2024 the United States mined an estimated 1,100 thousand tonnes of copper and refined 850 thousand tonnes from ore.
02
It exported 320 thousand tonnes as ore and concentrate, and imported 810 thousand tonnes of refined copper.
03
Refinery production from ore fell from 1,090 thousand tonnes in 2015 to 850 thousand tonnes in 2024.
04
Net import reliance for refined copper rose from 32 per cent in 2015 to 45 per cent in 2024.
The gap
02The United States is not short of copper. It is short of the capacity to turn it into metal.
Four figures from the same source describe the position. In 2024 the United States mined an estimated 1,100 thousand tonnes of recoverable copper. Its refineries produced 850 thousand tonnes from ore. It exported 320 thousand tonnes as ore and concentrate, and it imported 810 thousand tonnes of refined copper.
Those four numbers are reported separately by the United States Geological Survey and are not netted against one another here, because the source does not net them and the definitions differ. Recoverable content in ore is not the same measurement as refined output. But the shape is not in dispute. A country with substantial domestic mine production ships a material quantity of that production out unrefined, and buys back a larger quantity of finished metal from abroad.
What ten years show
03Two series, drawn from the same annual publication five years apart, show a consistent direction.
Refinery production from ore was 1,090 thousand tonnes in 2015. It reached 1,180 thousand tonnes in 2016, and has not returned to that level since. The 2024 estimate is 850 thousand tonnes, a fall of roughly a fifth from 2015 and roughly a quarter from the 2016 peak.
Net import reliance, which the survey defines as refined imports less refined exports adjusted for stock changes, expressed as a share of apparent consumption, moved the other way. It was 32 per cent in 2015. It was 45 per cent in 2024. The rise is not smooth, and 2021 at 44 per cent is a reminder that single years move for reasons unrelated to structural capacity, but a decade is long enough for the trend to be legible.
What did and did not change
04It is tempting to attribute the decline to plants closing, and the record is more particular than that.
In 2019 the survey recorded three smelters, three electrolytic refineries, four fire refineries and fourteen electrowinning facilities operating in the United States. In 2024 it recorded two primary smelters, one secondary smelter, two primary electrolytic refineries, fourteen electrowon refineries and three secondary fire refineries.
The number of smelters, counted the same way, did not fall. Electrolytic refining capacity did, from three plants to two. The larger movement is in output rather than in the count, which points to utilisation, ore availability and the economics of running the remaining plants rather than to a wave of closures inside this particular decade.
The count of plants held. The output did not. That distinction matters, because the two have different remedies.
Two events in the record cut against a simple decline narrative and belong in it. The Kennecott smelter and electrolytic refinery near Salt Lake City returned to normal operations in the first quarter of 2024 after major rebuilds during 2023, which accounts for part of the 2023 trough. And new capacity was being added: a secondary copper refinery in Kentucky and a secondary copper smelter in Georgia were expected to begin operating by the end of 2024.
Both are secondary capacity, which processes scrap rather than ore. Scrap is not a marginal contributor. Copper recovered from scrap accounted for about 35 per cent of United States copper supply in 2024. But secondary capacity does not convert domestic ore, and it is domestic ore conversion that the primary series measures.
Where the refining went
05World refinery production was an estimated 27,000 thousand tonnes in 2024. China accounted for 12,000 thousand tonnes of it. The United States accounted for 890 thousand tonnes, including secondary production.
On those figures one country refines a little under half the world's copper, and the largest economy in the world refines around three per cent of it. Refining did not disappear. It moved.
The import record shows where the finished metal now comes from. Between 2020 and 2023, refined copper imports into the United States originated 65 per cent from Chile, 17 per cent from Canada, 9 per cent from Mexico and 6 per cent from Peru. For blister and anodes, the copper content came 92 per cent from Finland.
A supply chain can be concentrated in a friendly country and still be a concentration.
What this implies
06Three implications follow, and none of them requires a view on price.
- Adding mine supply does not by itself add refined metal. Ore that cannot be converted domestically is exported as concentrate and returns, if it returns, as somebody else's product
- The binding constraint is conversion capacity, and conversion capacity is slow. A refinery is a permitting problem and a capital problem before it is an engineering one
- Scrap capacity and ore capacity are not substitutes for each other in policy terms, even though both produce refined copper. Only one of them makes domestic mine production useful domestically
Bbabsal builds at both ends of that chain, in Zambia and in the United States, and therefore has an interest in this conclusion. The figures above are published by a government survey, are reproduced without adjustment, and can be checked against the source in a few minutes. Readers should do that rather than take our reading of them.
Questions this study answers
07Q1
How many copper refineries does the United States have?
Two primary electrolytic refineries, alongside two primary smelters, fourteen electrowon refineries and three secondary fire refineries, as recorded for 2024.
USGS 2025
Q2
Does the United States refine all the copper it mines?
No. In 2024 it mined an estimated 1,100 thousand tonnes and refined 850 thousand tonnes from ore, exporting 320 thousand tonnes as ore and concentrate.
USGS 2025
Q3
How much refined copper does the United States import?
810 thousand tonnes in 2024. Net import reliance was 45 per cent of apparent consumption, against 32 per cent in 2015.
USGS 2025
Q4
Where is the world's copper actually refined?
World refinery production was an estimated 27,000 thousand tonnes in 2024. China accounted for 12,000 thousand tonnes of it. The United States accounted for 890 thousand tonnes including secondary production.
USGS 2025
Method and sources
08Method. All figures are taken directly from the United States Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries, an annual publication. The 2015 to 2019 values are from the January 2020 edition and the 2020 to 2024 values from the January 2025 edition, so that each figure is quoted from the edition in which it was published rather than from later revisions. Values for the most recent year of each edition are estimates and are marked as such by the source. No figure has been adjusted, rebased or interpolated. Where the source reports quantities separately, they are shown separately.
Limitations. Recoverable copper content of mine production and refinery production from ore are different measurements and are not directly comparable. Facility counts changed classification between the two editions, which is stated in the text rather than smoothed over. Single year movements reflect maintenance, strikes and ore grade as well as structural capacity.
01
United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2025, Copper. Prepared by Daniel M. Flanagan.
02
United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2020, Copper. Prepared by Daniel M. Flanagan.
03
End use distribution reported by the Copper Development Association, as cited in the above.
Corrections to this study will be published here with the date attached. Bbabsal has no declared mineral resource or reserve, and nothing in this study relates to ground the company holds.