Insights
Announced capacity is not built capacity.
The permits, closures and concessions that decide whether the supply forecasts turn out to be right.
Notes
01Small events decide large forecasts.
A permit granted, a smelter closed, a rail concession signed. Each is small enough to pass without comment, and together they decide whether the supply forecasts everyone is planning against turn out to be right.
Notes here track those developments as they happen. Nothing has been published yet.
What we watch
02Policy
Industrial strategy
Which instruments actually move a plant from press release to permit, and which produce announcements and nothing else.
Capacity
Smelting and refining
Closures are announced loudly and additions quietly. The net position is rarely what the headlines suggest.
Corridor
Routes to market
A landlocked province is only as good as its rail. Corridor economics decide what a discovery is worth.